Over the past few years, social media marketing has shifted a great deal, and we’ve almost reached a point where what works to drive engagement and clicks on a social network one day, may not the next.

This fast paced movement and rapid change isn’t an accident. It’s an essential part of any social network’s progression.

If you look closely at the evolution of the biggest social networks out there, a trend emerges and two clear periods of opportunity stand out for marketers. We call it the law of the double-peak, and it’s a transition every social network goes through:

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The two peaks of opportunity on any social network

The organic peak

When a social network is emerging and growing towards mainstream popularity, the key opportunity for brands tends to be organic reach (Facebook circa 2009, Instagram in 2015, Snapchat in 2016).

At this stage, individuals and brands who want to build an audience are usually focused on figuring out the platform (what do users want to see? which metrics matter?) and creating engaging, unique content that carries their brand message.

During the organic growth phase business KPIs often focus on building an audience, engagement, and amplification (shares, RTs, for example).

The paid peak

As a social network matures, organic reach and engagement will start to plateau and eventually begin to drop. The tactics that helped you build an audience will become increasingly less efficient and what you have now is a system that works a lot more like Google Adwords, or any other more established form of advertising, where reach is paid for.

The transition from organic to paid is an emotional one for marketers, and it takes some adjustment. Not everybody gets to find you organically anymore, and the tactics you’ve honed to increase organic reach are no longer as successful. But when you take a step back, there’s also an enormous opportunity to drive even greater value for your business through paid channels.

As networks transition towards the paid peak, business KPIs tend to become far more focused on driving clicks, conversions, downloads, and sales.

Here’s the law of the double-peak in action:

Facebook: From Organic to Paid

From around 2009 to 2012, Facebook was the place to build an audience organically. With an understanding of what content people were craving and engaging with on Facebook; some creative ideas and brilliant execution you could build a substantial audience without directly paying for it.

That’s not to say it was easy to build an audience organically between 2009 to 2012, but it was certainly doable, and a large number of brands had a ton of success with brilliant, creative content (and tiny advertising budgets).

Between 2011 and 2012, Facebook hit the organic peak. And starting around April 2012, Facebook’s organic reach begun to plateau at around 16% as the social network began to edge brands into sponsoring posts to increase reach.


From 2012 to 2014, as Facebook matured as a business, organic reach plummeted so much so that in 2014 organic reach had dropped to around 6% for all pages and for large pages with more than 500,000 likes, the number was just 2%.

The below graph from [email protected]’s “Facebook Zero: Considering Life After the Demise of Organic Reach,” highlights this demise:


When reach hit as low as 2% in February 2014, Facebook had all but become a pay-to-play advertising platform and the below chart from Business Insider shows the rise of Facebook’s desktop and mobile advertising revenue:

FB-ad growth

Now, in 2016, there are still tremendous opportunity to market your business on Facebook, but it’s shifted from organic to paid, and those who have been maximizing the value of Facebook dark posts and the social network’s other advertising products over the past year-or-so have seen significant results.

Based on a survey, 78% of social marketers told Forrester they’re very satisfied with the value Facebook ads provide.

As with any advertising platform, Facebook will gradually become more and more saturated (there are already over 3 million advertisers on Facebook) and the late adopters probably won’t see the same disproportionate success as current advertisers. But it’ll still be one of the most powerful advertising platforms we’ve ever seen.

The 3 stages of social network growth (and the tactics you need at each stage)

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Early Adopters

When any new social network launches, it’s first and most important challenge is to find product / market fit and at this stage, many of the users will be techies, marketers and the early adopters who jump on all the latest products and trends to test the water.

From a brand and business perspective, it’s worth paying attention to, understanding the user behavior and experimenting with platforms at the early adopter stage ready for when if it hits the mainstream. But the vast majority of time and dollars should be focused on mainstream and mature networks where you can reach a larger number of your audience.

When a network is at the early adopters stage it’ll usually go one of two ways: it’ll disappear, or continue growth towards mainstream popularity. And it’s only when platforms begin to march towards the mainstream that they’re worth fully investing in (for example, how Snapchat has grown in the past 12 months).

Products at this stage:

Key takeaway: When a promising new social network emerges, start testing the water to figure out how your business could use the platform if it continues to grow ?


As networks grow, they tend to have a pivotal moment where they become ingrained within pop-culture. For example, Twitter had the Hudson River plane landing, and recently, Snapchat had DJ Khaled.

When a product first hits the mainstream, there tend to be huge opportunities to grow an audience organically – great content still stands out, and organic clicks and views are high. Eventually, though, as the platform becomes more crowded, organic reach will plateau and gradually drop. This happens for a couple of reasons:

  • Content overload: As networks grow our feeds become increasingly cluttered, making it hard for us to find the content that matters to us most. If advertisers want their content to appear next to important updates from those closest to us, then they’ll need to pay (and make their advert relevant).
  • The business is maturing: As startups grow, they need to start bringing in revenue, and most times, their most valuable resource is user eyeballs.

As organic reach starts to drop, a good strategy is to transition from ad spend focused on growing your following and concentrate more on clicks and conversions.

Products at this stage:

Key takeaway: If you start to see encouraging results from a social network as it moves towards the mainstream, go all in and try to drive as much ROI as possible as it progresses towards the organic peak ?


When a network becomes mature organic reach is next to zero, and for brands and businesses, this means to reach anyone aside from your biggest fans you’ll need to pay.

If you’ve built up a good following during the early adopter and mainstream periods of growth, you can still test and optimize organic reach on a mature platform. But the vast majority of clicks and traffic will come from paid marketing.

Products at this stage:

  • Facebook

Key takeaway: Put effort into maintaining the community you’ve built on a mature platform, but switch to a paid marketing mindset when it comes to key business goals. Think about how campaigns can drive sales, downloads or whichever key metric is most important to you ?

Over to you

I’d love to hear your thoughts on the law of the double-peak and how well it correlates with your experience of social media marketing? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments below.

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Written by Ash Read

Content crafter at Buffer. I’m fascinated by storytelling, entrepreneurship, and travel. When I’m not writing, you’ll usually find me on a football pitch or basketball court.

  • Great article! 🙂

  • Lewis, DM Pilot Co-Founder

    Nice article Ash! No mention of Pinterest which I think is quite an important social network in 2016? Saying that, not sure where I’d put it in terms of main stream or mature.

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    • Hey Lewis, thanks for reading. That’s a complete oversight on my part not including Pinterest. I would potentially add it as a Mainstream network, they’re rolling out paid / sponsored pins and improving their ad product but organic reach doesn’t seem to be trending downwards too quickly. Love to hear how this feels to you? 🙂

      • Lewis, DM Pilot Co-Founder

        I think I’d agree with you on that.

  • Ash: thanks for the clarity. Social tends to feel bewildering and fickle. Resources like this start to paint comprehensible interpretations. Solid work, I’ll be sharing this around our organization and my personal clients.

    • Thanks Brian, so great to hear your thoughts here 🙂

  • Ashley Ruskiewicz

    One of the best posts on social media value that I have ever read! As a social media marketer, it’s hard to formulate all the ideas that run thorugh my head, and I apprciate all the new perspectives.

    • Hey Ashley, thanks! That means a lot to hear. Appreciate you taking the time to read this one 🙂

  • Roy357

    I don’t think Snapchat fits this model. Without a newsfeed, organic reach is nonexistent.

    • Hey Roy, that’s a super interesting view point, thanks for sharing. I included Snapchat as I think it could soon become overcrowded as users add more friends, meaning your story has less chance of getting seen. Feels similar to an Instagram and FB feed in that sense, but I could be totally off here 🙂

  • Cyril

    Interesting insight. As a product builder for social media products like these, it makes sense for me to get on board early on the winning ones, but there’s no easy way to find out which ones will win.

    I remember I made Tuberank Jeet, an optimization software for YouTube when the market was getting hot, and today it’s a very popular software.

    What fresh platforms do you think offer the best opporutuinity?

    • Hey Cyril,

      Thanks for the comment. It can be really tough to see which platforms will win, I feel the best way to do this is to keep an eye on growth / trends around each platform. For example, Snapchat is hot right now and has been consistently growing for the past two years.

      AT the moment I personally think Instagram and Snapchat have the biggest opportunities 🙂

  • Abhik

    The site is pretty interesting as I have learnt that it is about social networking. I have a product called penguin recovery Jeet. Using this your site will get a boost and get good opportunities to make success possible. What are the other platforms of the opportunities?

  • Interesting.
    I’ve quickly checked several brands in different social media. Looks like this tactic you’ve shared actually works for the majority of these brands.
    Thanks for sharing!

  • Jes Kirkwood

    Great insights, Ash. Thanks for sharing!

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  • @ashleyread:disqus I think you nailed this down pretty well. One edit I would recommend is that we have no basis for that third trough. I get your assumption, that at maturity a paid social opportunity MAY produce slightly reduced results due to saturation, competitiveness, etc. But so far, the most mature social ad platforms (FB, LinkedIn, and Twitter) still produce a very valuable opportunity if not a growing one. Each ad platform continues to add features. If anything I might make that last trough more of a dotted line. Not sure that piece holds yet.

    And I’d move Twitter to Mature and list LinkedIn in mature. The value prop for both is static. Growth is slow. Their ad platform is very mature and the keys to a goal based social effort on both channels.

    Great content. Thanks for sharing.